Research Report

CPI inflation inched up to 3.5% in April 2026, lower than ICRA’s forecast: The uptick in headline inflation print was largely driven by F&B (to +4.0% from +3.7%), and restaurants and accommodation services (to +4.2% from +2.9%), with the latter reflecting the impact of the commercial LPG price hike amid the West Asia crisis. Core (CPI excluding F&B and electricity, gas & other fuels) remained steady at 3.4% in these months. 

CPI inflation to harden to ~4.1% in May 2026: ICRA expects the YoY inflation in the F&B segment to rise further and print at ~4.5% in May 2026 from 4.0% in April 2026, led by the vegetables (amid erratic weather conditions), edible oils, and readymade food segments.

Source: NSO; CEIC; ICRA Research